GBPUSD - Pound Dollar News

The latest news from Japan showed Household Spending surprisingly weakened 1.3 percent. Meanwhile, Australia’s Priv ate Capital Expenditure sunk faster than expected (-4.4 percent), and the previous reading revised higher from -2.2 percent to -1.7 percent.

In Canada, the central bank decided on Wednesday to keep its Overnight Rate unchanged at 0.75 percent. Current Account and RMPI, particularly the latter, came in better than forecast (-CAD17.5 billion and 3.8 percent, respectively). GDP slid 0.2 percent in the first quarter, compared to a 0.2 percent expectation. The previous reading for GDP was revised lower to -0.1 percent from a flat reading.

In the United States, Jobless Claims for the prior week increased to 282,000 that is 11,000 higher than its median forecast. The April Chicago PMI disappointed with a drop to 46.2, which is near the 6-year low. Meanwhile, the Prelim GDP decline in the first quarter was a tad lower than expected, -0.7 percent.

Commodities

Gold followed a bearish path for the second week in a row after sellers overpowered buyers in the lower part of $1,200 in the prior week. $1,200 remains sticky and trades below this level remain attractive. We could see more of the same this week.

Oil saw more volatility after the continuous selling starting the week. A big jump pushed prices back through $60 on Friday and the week ended just above this level. The support area indeed got tested and we would now have to wait if we’ll get a follow through move through $60.

Currency Pairs

Unlike the dive of nearly 450 pips seen in the prior week, EURUSD was contented to trade in a much narrower range this week. The pair stayed close to 1.1000; this could likely get sticky this week too.

GBPUSD had another gloomier week. Unlike EURUSD, GBPUSD slid considerably for the second week, moved through 1.5400, and looks interested in attacking 1.5000 again. 1.50-1.52 would prove a critical area for both sides.

Back-to-back weekly advances pushed USDJPY through 124 this week. This is an area well past all recent resistance and is the highest reached since 2003. If this pair would retrace, we can look for support to come in around 120-122.

The Week Ahead

To start June, Monday will be more active than usual with news releases such as Japan’s Capital Spending; Australia’s Building Approvals, MI Inflation Gauge, and Company Operating Profits; China’s Manufacturing PMI and Non- Manufacturing PMI; Germany’s Prelim CPI; Spain, Italy, Switzerland, and UK Manufacturing PMI; and US ISM and Final Manufacturing PMI, and Personal Spending and Income. New Zealand will observe the Queen’s Birthday.

Tuesday will start early with New Zealand’s Overseas Trade Index; Australia’s Current Account, Cash Rate Announcement and Rate Statement; Japan’s Average Cash Earnings; UK Construction PMI and Net Lending to Individuals; Spain and Germany’s Employment Change ; Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate; and US Factory Orders.

Wednesday will stay very busy with Australia’s GDP; Spain, UK, Germany, France, and Italy Services PMI; Eurozone Retail Sales and Unemployment Rate; ECB Minimum Bid Rate Announcement; US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; US and Canada Trade Balance.

Thursday will offer Australia’s Retail Sales and Trade Balance; Eurozone Retail Sales;; BOE Official Bank Rate and Asset Purchase Facility announcement; Canada’s Ivey PMI; and US Jobless Claims and Revised Nonfarm Productivity.

Friday’s activity will decline considerably, but traders will surely monitor news such as German Factory Orders; Switzerland’s Foreign Currency Reserves; UK Halifax HPI; Canada and US jobs data; and OPEC meetings.

The latest Japan Core Machinery Orders, a measure of new private sector purchase orders for machines, surprised with a surge of 2.9 percent in March. Prelim GDP edged up 0.6 percent in the first quarter of the year.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment saw a dramatic decline to 41.9 (53.3 previously) this month, while EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment made a more modest decline to 61.2 (64.8 previously).

In the United Kingdom, the MPC Asset Purchase Facility and Official Bank Rate votes remained unchanged. Meanwhile, Consumer Price Index surprisingly dipped 0.1 percent in April, when analysts were expecting no change. This is the first time it fell since the 1960s. PPI Input gained 0.4 percent in April. Retail Sales grew 1.2 percent on clothing demand, following a 0.7 percent decline in March.

In the United States, Jobless Claims for the prior week stood at 274,000. Building Permits and Housing Starts beat forecasts, while Flash Manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Existing Home Sales all came in lower than forecast.

Commodities

Gold retraced part of the prior week’s advance after selling ensued around the $1,230s early in the week. Price is now back near the $1,200 level and would threaten another move below it. Resistance remains around $1,280 to $1,300.

Oil had another volatile week as both sides battle for control around the $60 area. Support has thickened around $55 to $58, and we will see if this area would get tested this week.

Currency Pairs

EURUSD dived nearly 450 pips this week after sellers stepped in at the 1.1460s. Price is back down to test the 1.1000 level. Let’s see if this area would become a solid support zone.

GBPUSD has formed a 400-pip bearish weekly inside bar. Sellers dominated after the prior week’s “Goldilocks” advance through 1.5800. A strong move through 1.5400 would expose 1.5000-1.5100.

Finally, USDJPY made a decisive move this week. The pair moved higher by 230 pips and made a firm weekly close just above 121.50. If Dollar strength continues, we could see a new high soon.

The Week Ahead

Monday will be short of several vital economic news, as many major banks will be closed. Germany, Switzerland, and France will observe Whit Monday. The UK will observe the Spring Bank Holiday, while the United States will observe Memorial Day. Only Japan’s Trade Balance and BOJ Monthly Report will be the most important news to be released today.

The pace will pick up slightly on Tuesday with New Zealand’s Trade Balance; Switzerland’s Employment Level; US Durable Goods Orders, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, New Home Sales, CB Consumer Confidence, and Richmond Manufacturing Index.

Wednesday will open up with BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, followed by Australia’s Construction Work Done; Gfk German Consumer Climate; and Bank of Canada’s Rate Announcement and Statement. The G7 will start its 3-day meeting today.

Thursday will start quite early with Japan’s Retail Sales; Australia’s Private Capital Expenditure; Switzerland’s Trade Balance; UK Second Estimate GDP, BBA Mortgage Approvals, and Prelim Business Investment; Canada’s Current Account and RMPI; US Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales.

Friday will have New Zealand’s Building Consents; Japan’s Household Spending, Jobless Rate, Prelim Industrial Production, and Tokyo Core CPI; New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence; Germany’s Retail Sales; France Consumer Spending; Spain’s Flash CPI; Eurozone M3 Money Supply and Private Loans; Canada’s GDP; US Prelim GDP, Chicago PMI, and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.

RBA slashes Cash Rate to 2 percent.  The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to reduce its Cash Rate by 25 percentage points to 2 percent.

In other news from Australia, Building Approvals surged surprisingly by 2.8 percent in March, when median expectations was for a drop of 1.7 percent. Job Advertisements climbed 2.3%, while Trade Balance came in weaker –AU$1.32 billion. Meanwhile, Retail Sales was slightly weaker at 0.3 percent for the month of March.

In the United Kingdom, Construction PMI for April slowed dramatically to 54.2, its weakest since June 2013, according to the latest news from M arkit.

New Zealand Employment Change was a tad weaker at 0.7 percent, while the Jobless Rate came in higher at 5.8 percent. Meanwhile, Australia’s Employment Change stood at -2.9 percent while Jobless Rate came in as expected at 6.2 percent.

US Jobless Claims came in 17,000 lower than forecast at 265,000 during the previous week. Non-Farm Employment Change came in at 223,000 in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

US and Canada Trade balance were much weaker than expected, -$51.4 billion and –CAD3 billion, respectively. US Jobless Rate came in line with forecast at 5.4 percent while Canada’s Jobless Rate stayed at 6.8 percent in April. Canada lost 19,700 jobs in April.

Commodities

Gold has been confined in a $22 range just below the $1,200 level. There is a long-term support around $1,180 and this could be playing a role on the current moves on Gold. Buyers need to break through a growing resistance around $1,220.

Oil spiked through $62 this week. But when the dust settled, Friday ended just slightly above the Monday open. Resistance around $58 has so far turned support, so we can expect a follow-through move higher if price stays above $60.

Currency Pairs

EURUSD enjoyed its fourth bullish weekly close after the pair aimed for 1.1400. The pair fell a few pips short of this level and then retraced close to the weekly open. The current move may have enough momentum to try and break 1.1400 this coming week.

GBPUSD powered back higher as buyers helped push the pair higher to form a weekly outside range and the highest weekly close on over two months. 1.56 to 1.59 is the next key area if the pair decides to move higher.

USDJPY printed a bearish weekly close but some indicators are hinting of a possible move higher. Having said that, this pair has been consolidating for over a month now, so it could still be swayed to either side. 120 could be the key to the upcoming directional change.

The Week Ahead

Monday will again be very compact this week but very impactful with Australia’s NAB Business Confidence; Eurogroup Meetings; BOE Official Bank Rate and Asset Purchase Facility announcement.

Tuesday will get started quite early with UK’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor; Australia’s Home Loans and Annual Budget Release; UK Manufacturing and Industrial Production; ECOFIN Meetings; and US JOLTS Job Openings.

Wednesday will be very busy with New Zealand’s FPI and RBNZ Financial Stability Report; Japan’s Current Account and Bank Lending; China’s Industrial Production, M2 Money Supply and New Loans; France, Italy, and Germany Prelim GDP; UK BOE Inflation Report, Inflation Letter, Flash, GDP, Claimant Count Change and Jobless Rate; US Retail Sales and Import Prices.

Thursday’s action will start very early as well with New Zealand’s Business NZ Manufacturing Index and Retail Sales; Canada’s NHPI; US PPI and Jobless Claims.

Friday will end the week with Switzerland’s PPI; Canada’s Manufacturing Sales and Foreign Securities Purchases; US Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, and Capacity Utilization Rate.

The US Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday to leave the Federal Funds Rate at less than 0.25 percent. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand followed up on Thursday with a similar decision, holding its Official Cash Rate at 3.50 percent.

In other US news, the latest Advance GDP report showed the first-quarter growth was nearly zero. The 0.2 percent growth is much weaker than the one percent growth median estimate. The prior reading was cut back to 2.2 percent from 2.6 percent.

Meanwhile, CB Consumer Confidence declined to 95.2 in April after posting 101.4 in March. On the other hand, Jobless Claims for the previous week showed 262,000 Americans filed for their unemployment insurance claims last week, compared to median forecast of 290,000.

US Employment Cost Index advanced 0.7 percent, but Personal Spending grew only 0.4 percent. ISM Manufacturing PMI stayed at 51.5 in April for the second month. This is the weakest reading in nearly two years, according to ISM.

In other news, Retail Sales in Germany and Japan showed surprise drops. Japan Retail Sales sunk 9.7 percent while Germany’s Retail Sales dropped 2.3 percent. Meanwhile, Eurostat said Eurozone Jobless Rate remained at 11.3 percent for the second month on March.

Commodities

Gold managed to get through the $1,200 level during the first half of the week, but sellers quickly faded the move and controlled the latter part of the week. The result is Gold formed a lower weekly low and close, endangering the current mini range.

Oil made another headway into the resistance and came closer to the $60 this week. We may well see the $60-$80 range prove critical in the month of May. Of course, a test of the $50 is still in the table.

Currency Pairs

EURUSD saw a spectacular week as it printed its third straight weekly advance. This time, it blew past the 1.1200 level with a 470 pip weekly range in favor of bulls. Any retracement should find some support around 1.1000.

GBPUSD posted a shocking turn as the pair reversed nearly 400 pips after failing to touch the 1.5500 level. This puts a significant blow to the pair and puts the 1.5000 back in play.

USDJPY thwarted a break to the downside and surprised with a 180-pip move through 120, which helped the pair end the week above that psychological level. This pair remains in a very tight range so it would be interesting to see what happens in the next few weeks.

The Week Ahead

This week, Monday will be a very brief news day with Australia’s Building Approvals and ANZ Job Ads; China’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI; Spain, Italy and Germany Manufacturing PMI; and US Factory Orders. Japan will observe Greenery Day, while the UK will observe May Day.

Tuesday will get busy as usual, starting with Australia’s Trade Balance and RBA Cash Rate Announcement and Statement; UK Construction PMI and Halifax HPI; EU Economic Forecast; US and Canada Trade Balance; US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Wednesday will also be busy with New Zealand’s Jobless Rate and Employment Change; Australia’s Retail Sales; China’s HSBC Services PMI; UK Services PMI; Eurozone Retail Sales; Canada’s Ivey PMI; US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, US Preliminary Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity and Fed Chair Yellen’s speech.

On Thursday, we will see the announcement of Australia’s jobs data; Germany’s Factory Orders; Switzerland’s Foreign Currency Reserves; UK Parliamentary Elections; Canada’s Building Permits; and US Jobless Claims.

Friday will showcase RBA’s Monetary Policy Statement; China’s Trade Balance; Germany and UK Trade Balance; and US and Canada jobs reports.

The Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI for France, Germany, and Eurozone all came in lower than expected for the month of April. Meanwhile, Spain’s Jobless Rate edged higher to 23.8 percent in April, according to the latest labor Force Survey of the Spanish National Statistics Institute.

In the United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics reported that Retail Sales surprisingly slumped 0.5 percent, after a revised-lower reading for February of 0.6 percent. Public Sector Net Borrowing was close to expectations at GBP6.7 billion, with the previous reading revised to GBP4.8 billion from GBP6.2 billion.

In the United States, Jobless Claims jumped to 295,000, higher by 7,000 than the median forecast and just 1,000 more than the prior week’s claims. New Home Sales was much lower (a four-month low) at 481,000 in March, registering below the 500,000 mark for the sixth time out of the last 7 months. Durable Goods Orders jumped 4.0 percent due demand for aircraft and automobiles, although the core reading eased 0.2 percent.

Commodities

Gold was unable to secure its foothold on the $1,200 level this week, hence the week ended with a close at $1,179. Although below $1,200 this remains a critical area for both sides, especially for bulls. Bulls would target $1,250 while sellers would aim for a test of the $1140 area.

Oil seems comfortable trading above mini range resistance around $54 as it hover around $56 the entire week. The next key area for bulls is $65 to $70. But it is still possible to see a test of $50 to $54.

Currency Pairs

EURUSD managed to add another week of gains after posting a significant gain in the prior week. This could be an indication that the pair is ready to retrace toward 1.10 and test 1.14 in the process.

GBPUSD continue to post hefty gains on a weekly basis. After trading in a range of nearly 500 pips in the prior week, the pair moved within a range of over 300 pips this week. Buyers are now likely looking for a move toward 1.5500.

USDJPY erased gains it created during the start of the week when price declined on Thursday and Friday. A downside breakout seems to be setting up with an eye on 116 at least. This could become certain if the pair fails to break through 120 in the coming days.

The Week Ahead

On Monday, New Zealand will celebrate ANZAC Day. The only critical news piece today is UK’s CBI Industrial Order Expectations.

On Tuesday, news activity would pick up slightly with Japan’s Retail Sales; UK Prelim GDP; US CB Consumer Confidence; and Bank of Canada Governor Poloz’s speech.

Wednesday will start very early with New Zealand’s Trade Balance and ANZ Business Confidence; Germany’s Preliminary CPI; Eurozone M3 Money Supply and Private Loans; UK CBI Realized Sales; Canada’s RMPI, and IPPI; US Advance GDP, Advance GDP Price Index, Pending Home Sales, FOMC Statement, and Federal Funds Rate announcement.

Thursday will get busy very early with RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate announcement and statement and Building Consents; Australia’s Import Prices; BOJ Monetary Policy Statement,, press conference, and Outlook Report; Spain’s Flash CPI and Flash GDP; Germany’s Unemployment Change; Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate and Jobless Rate; Canada’s GDP; US Jobless Claims, Employment Cost Index, Personal Spending, Personal Income, and Chicago PMI.

Friday will end the week with Japan’s Household Spending, Average Cash Earnings, and Tokyo Core CPI; China’s Manufacturing PMI and Non-Manufacturing PMI; Australia’s PPI; UK Manufacturing PMI and Net Lending to Individuals; US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada both decided to leave rates unchanged (0.05 percent and 0.75 percent, respectively) this week.

A barrage of news came out of China this week. Trade Balance surplus shrunk by a huge margin to CNY3.1 billion in March. New Loans surged past expectations at CNY1,180 billion while M2 Money Supply came in below forecast. Forecast for the China GDP was spot on at 7 percent while Industrial Production came in weaker at 5.6 percent. Finally, Fixed Asset Investment and Retail Sales were slightly lower than forecast at 13.5 percent and 10.2 percent, respectively.

In other news, UK Jobless Rate was as expected 5.6 percent. Meanwhile, Australia enjoyed a slight improvement in Jobless Rate (6.1 percent versus 6.2 percent previously).

Statistics Canada revealed Retail Sales surge 1.7 percent in February, while the core reading also surged 2 percent. CPI was higher than expected at 0.7 percent.

In the United States, Jobless Claims for the prior week jumped to 294,000, higher by 20,000 compared to its median estimate. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index for the month of April came in better than anticipated at 7.5. The Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment was much better at 95.9 compared to its 93.8 median estimate.

Commodities

Gold was in range mode and spent most of its time below $1,200. Bulls still have a chance to keep Gold in their control by pushing it toward $1,250.

Oil managed to move through the resistance area and reach the low-$57s before ending the week just below the $56 level. It would be interesting to see if the $53 to $55 area would hold in the next few days. If it does, we could see higher prices soon.

Currency Pairs

It was a good week for EURUSD bulls as the pair rode the short-term oversold trend higher by about 330 pips. There is still a lot of work to do as they have to break past 1.100 very soon. Downside risk remains high.

Pip-wise, GBPUSD did much better again this week compared to EURUSD. Cable rose nearly 500 pips and managed to close right at the short-term range resistance area at 1.4957 after reaching as high as 1.5052. The next major hurdle is 1.5500.

USDJPY printed nearly 230 bearish pips last week as expected sellers at the 120 level kept a lid on this pair. Bulls need to recapture the 120 level.

The Week Ahead

Monday will be very quiet in terms of economic releases. There will only be New Zealand’s Consumer Price Index; Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity; German Bundesbank’s Monthly Report; and BOC Governor Poloz’s speech.

On Tuesday, news activity would pick up slightly with Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; Germany and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment; Canada’s Wholesale Sales and Annual Budget Release.

Wednesday will have as much activity as Tuesday. The list includes Japan’s Trade Balance; Australia’s Consumer Price Index and Trimmed Mean CPI; UK MPC Official Bank Rate and Asset Purchase Votes; Italy’s Retail Sales; US Existing Home Sales.

Thursday will have the most activity this week. The list includes Australia’s NAB Quarterly Business Confidence; China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI; Switzerland’s Trade Balance; French, German, and Euro-area Flash Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI; UK Public Sector Net Borrowing and Retail Sales; Spain’s Jobless Rate; US Jobless Claims, New Home Sales and Flash Manufacturing PMI.

Finally, Friday will cap off the week with Germany’s Ifo Business Climate; Eurogroup meetings; US Durable Goods Orders; and BOC Governor Poloz’s speech.

The German Federal Employment Agency broke the great news that Jobless Rate fell to a record low of 6.4 percent in March as the labor market continues to improve. Unemployment Change saw a decline of only 15,000. Lower gas prices favor consumers while exports are boosted by a weaker Euro.

In the United Kingdom, Office for National Statistics reported that Current Account for the fourth quarter of 2014 breached median expectations at –GBP25.3 billion, while the prior figure was revised negatively. Final GDP stood at 0.6 percent. Construction PMI fell short of forecast, 57.8 versus 59.7.

In the United States, Trade Balance improved to -$35.4 billion, compared to median expectation for -$41.3 billion. Last week’s Jobless Claims beat expectations (268,000 versus 286,000 forecast).

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US Non-Farm Employment Change surprised to the downside as it came in just over half of forecast. Only 126,000 workers were added, compared to 246,000 expected. This is the first 100k-level figure since August. Also, the February figure was downgraded, from 295,000 to 264,000. Jobless Rate stayed at 5.5 percent for the second month in March. Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings improved 0.3 percent.

Commodities

Gold started the week with a quick dash downward starting just beneath $1,200, but price has quickly recovered since then. Gold ended the week just above $1,200, giving bulls the incentive to push price higher. If this is an initial bullish sign, we could see Gold hover close to the $1,250 area or higher.

Oil failed to reclaim the $50 level this week but the bullish weekly close could offer another stab to the upside. There are plenty of resistance up to $55, and bulls need to prove they can cut through this area. Consolidation at the current area is more favorable to bears.

Currency Pairs

EURUSD managed to clinch its third weekly bullish close but it is still confined below 1.1000-1050 (an area high printed three weeks ago). The next aim is to go for 1.1300-1.1400 to continue chopping the bearish momentum in this pair.

GBPUSD is in a much weaker situation if you look at the weekly chart. Cable continues to struggle below the 1.5000 major level, and this indicates bearish action is still in play. Short-term target right now is the 1.5200 zone.

USDJPY is on the verge of a possible strong downside move. If successfully initiated, the downmove could bring this pair toward 117.00-50 soon. Alternatively, we could see further tug of wars around the current area.

The Week Ahead

New Zealand and Australia will exit DST (Daylight Saving Time) on April 4 (Saturday) and April 5 (Sunday), respectively.

Monday will be quiet due to observance of Easter Monday in New Zealand, Australia, Switzerland, France, Germany, and the UK. China will observe Tomb Sweeping Day. Spain will publish Unemployment Change, followed by Canada’s Ivey PMI and US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Tuesday will be busy with Australia’s Retail Sales, ANZ Job Advertisements, and RBA rate announcement and statement; Switzerland’s Foreign Currency Reserves; UK Halifax HPI; Italy, UK, and Spain Services PMI; and US JOLTS Job Openings.

Wednesday will have lower news activity with Japan’s Current Account, Monetary Policy Statement, and BOJ presscon; Germany’s Factory Orders; Switzerland’s CPI; UK BOE Credit Conditions Survey; Eurozone Retail Sales; and US FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Thursday will have China’s New Loans and M2 Money Supply; UK Trade Balance, BOE Rate statement and announcement; Canada’s Building Permits and NHPI; and US Jobless Claims.

Finally, Friday will have China’s PPI and CPI; Australia’s Home Loans; UK Manufacturing Production; Canada’s Employment data; and US Import Prices.

New Zealand’s Trade Balance has remained weak for the second consecutive month as dairy led the decline in exports. Statistics New Zealand showed a NZD50 million trade surplus, compared to the NZD375 million forecast. Dairy declined 41 percent compared to a year earlier, as prices and export quantities declined. Falling exports to China, a major trading partner, has been the key reason.

In the United Kingdom, the Office for National Statistics reported that CPI has turned flat in February, the first time since its record started nearly 30 years ago. PPI Input was only 0.2 percent. Retail Sales continued in a positive trend for the fifth month in February with a 0.7 percent gain, better than expected.

US data was generally mixed. Flash Manufacturing PMI was published at 55.3, slightly better than the previous month’s revised reading. New Home Sales of 539,000 was seen in February, the best in seven years. However, Existing Home Sales came in slightly lower than forecast at 4.88 million. Durable Goods for February surprisingly dropped; the main and core readings dropped 1.4 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively. Jobless Claims for the prior week was 282,000. Meanwhile, BEA said Final GDP for the fourth quarter of 2014 grew 2.2 percent on consumer spending.

Commodities

This week, Gold tried to rally through $1,200 but ultimately fell short of this level during the weekly close. This could indicate weakness remains and sellers could still pound the yellow metal back to the multi-year lows.

Oil followed Gold’s path this week. It tried to rally for most of the week, and managed to break through $52 but fell back to earth after sellers reclaimed control on Friday. The $48 level could be a key level in the coming days or weeks.

Currency Pairs

EURUSD clearly struggled to go higher all throughout this week. Bulls got a brief taste of new weekly highs on Thursday before sellers pulled the rag out of their feet. 1.09-1.10 would be the key area for bulls to traverse. Otherwise, we could see new lows in the coming weeks.

Unlike EURUSD, GBPUSD had a much harder time this week. The pair consolidated within a very tight range and stayed closed to the 1.4800 level. Continued weakness in the new week would push this pair to new lows.

USDJPY declined to new weekly lows before we saw buyers step in to prevent further losses. The 118-119 area proved critical as expected and we could see more battles in this area soon.

The Week Ahead

Daylight Saving Time shift will be implemented in Switzerland, the UK, and several Eurozone countries. Meanwhile, New Zealand and Australia will exit DST on April 4 (Saturday) and April 5 (Sunday), respectively.

On Monday, we will see the release of Japan’s Prelim. Industrial Production; German Prelim CPI; Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer; UK Net Lending to Individuals; Canada’s IPPI and RMPI; US Personal Spending, Personal Income, and Pending Home Sales.

Tuesday will have New Zealand’s Building Consents and ANZ Business Confidence; Australia’s HIA New Home Sales and Private Sector Credit; Japan’s Average Cash Earnings; Germany’s Retail Sales and Jobless Change; France’s Consumer Spending; UK Current Account and Final GDP; Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate and Jobless Rate; and US Chicago PMI and CB Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday will be busy with Japan’s Tankan Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Index; Australia’s Building Approvals; China Manufacturing PMI and HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI; Spain, Italy, and UK Manufacturing PMI; and US Final Manufacturing PMI, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Construction Spending, and ISM Manufacturing PMI.

Thursday will have lesser activity with Australia’s Trade Balance; UK Halifax HPI and Construction PMI; US and Canada Trade Balance; and US Unemployment Claims and Factory Orders.

Friday is a holiday in New Zealand, Australia, Switzerland, Germany, UK, and Canada. Only news activity will be China’s HSBC Services PMI and US Employment data.