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GBPUSD - Pound Dollar News

GBPUSD News - Pound Dollar latest headlines

US NFP, Jobs Data Lifts Dollar Further

The status quo decision from the ECB was expected, and as usual, the US jobs data stole the spotlight this week.

The European Central Bank decided to keep its Minimum Bid Rate unchanged at an ultra-low 0.05 percent for the second time. ECB’s Draghi expressed intention of continued purchase of assets over the coming two years, at least, to bid up inflation and the euro-area’s economic growth.

In the United States, there was a slew of important economic data released this week. Among the highlights was the Trade balance data which improved slightly further for the third month to -$40.1 billion. The September Unemployment Rate improved to 5.9 percent, while Jobless Claims improved for the prior week. The Non-Farm Employment Change saw a boost of 248,000 workers in September, clearly beating analyst forecast. The prior month’s reading was also revised higher by 38,000 to 180,000.

In Japan, Unemployment Rate improved in August to 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, Retail Sales improved 1.2 percent year-on-year, while Household Spending slid 4.5 percent, its fifth straight monthly decline. Preliminary Industrial Production surprisingly dipped 1.5 percent. Finally, Average Cash Earnings grew better than expected but the prior reading was revised down to 2.4 percent.

Commodities

After taking a short pause last week, Gold resumed its nosedive this week by slicing through and closing below the key $1,200 level. What is separating Gold from new multi-year lows right now is the double bottom support at the low-$1180s. If this area breaks, we could see $1,000 hit for the first time in 5 years.

Oil had quite a volatile week, but eventually bears won with a strong weekly finish below the important $90 level. Price is now headed to the $82-$85 area where potential supports may lie. Unlike Gold bulls, oil bulls have a better chance at salvaging their ship before it becomes way too late. They must conquer $90 first.

Currency Pairs

EURUSD bulls are in deep trouble as price dived heavily on Friday, closing in on the 1.2500 level. The pair has closed with a bearish bias on 11 of the last 12 weeks, and this is a serious cause for concern. Avoid buying this bear train.

We could now consider Monday’s marginal bullish close a consolation for GBPUSD bulls as this pair has turned very bearish for the rest of the week. With the 1.6000 level smashed open, we could see 1.5700 revisited soon. Indicators are showing some divergence so an alternative scenario is a slower downside move will happen in the next few days or weeks.

Unlike USDCHF, USDJPY has not created a new multi-year high this week as the yen was confined by Wednesday’s top at 110.07. Nevertheless, this pair remains bullish and we could well see newer highs throughout October.

The Week Ahead

This Monday, a significant number of Australian banks will observe Labor Day. Chinese banks will also be closed to observe National Day. On the news front, there will be ANZ Job Ads; Germany Factory Orders; and Canada’s Ivey PMI.

Tuesday will open up early with New Zealand’s NZIER Business Confidence. This will be followed by Japan’s BOJ Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference; RBA interest rate announcement and statement; Switzerland’s Foreign Currency Reserves and CPI; UK Halifax HPI, BOE Credit Conditions Survey, NIESR GDP Estimate and Manufacturing Production; Canada’s Building Permits; and US JOLTS Job Openings.

Wednesday would be unusually quiet with only a few news events. These are Japan’s Current Account; China’s HSBC Services PMI; Switzerland’s Jobless Rate; and Canada’s Housing Starts. The day will be topped off with US FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Thursday would be a lot more active with Japan’s Core Machinery Orders; Australia’s Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; Germany’s Trade Balance; UK Asset Purchase Facility, interest rate announcement and statement; Canada’s NHPI; US Jobless Claims. It will also host the first day of G20 meetings.

Friday will end the way with Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and Tertiary Industry Activity; Australia’s Home Loans; France and Italy Industrial Production; China’s New Loans; UK Trade Balance; Canada’s BOC Business Outlook Survey, Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; and US Import Prices. Friday will also hold Day 2 of the G20 meetings and Day 1 of IMF meetings.

Gold & EURUSD Continue their Downwards Trend This Week

The US Federal Reserve decided in their latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting to keep rates unchanged as economic activity is “expanding at a moderate pace”, “labor market conditions improved somewhat”, household spending “appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing.” The Committee declared that a highly accommodative stance continues to be “appropriate” as it seeks to “foster maximum employment and price stability.”

In other US news, Unemployment Claims grew at a slower pace below the 300,000 level for the third time in five weeks. CPI and PPI were flat. Empire State Manufacturing index climbed to 27.5 this September, beating median forecast of 16.4. Meanwhile, Treasury International Capital data for July showed a drop of $18.6 billion, which was a magnitude similar to June’s drop. Current Account has improved to -$99 billion and previous release was revised better to -$102 billion.

Switzerland’s SNB kept the Libor rate below 0.25 percent.

In the UK, the MPC gave no surprises as the Asset Purchase Facility votes and Official Bank Rate votes remain unchanged. MPC members Martin Weale and Ian McCafferty voted in favor of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent.

In Scotland’s referendum, a majority of Scots voted “No” on Thursday, indicating most are against Scotland becoming an independent country and discontinuing the use of British Pound as main currency. However, another referendum could manifest again as the recent result was a close call.

Commodities

Gold had another rough week as buyers were unable to pass the initial hurdle at $1,250. This marks the third consecutive downweek and price is getting closer to medium-term support around $1,200. This could probably be the last chance for bulls to redeem themselves before a downspiral toward $1,000.

Oil saw volatility in a $4 range as bulls attempt to reverse the course of black gold. Ultimately, sellers around $94 and $95 won and they were able to press price back down and this left Oil largely unchanged this week. The battle at $92 is expected to rage on.

 Currency Pairs

Another selldown happened on EURUSD this week as the pair was unable to get even close to the 1.3000 level. Dollar strength pulled this price down by nearly 170 pips to a price area that could give bulls some assistance. 1.2700-1.2750 is a very important support area.

Unlike EURUSD, GBPUSD has continued to trend higher this week. The pair hit a near-2 week high of 1.6523 on Friday. Nevertheless, price was nearly unchanged this week. Buyers need to get a concrete foothold above 1.6500 to keep the ball on their court.

USDJPY went on to climb for the third straight week and it is now hitting a major multi-year down-trendline, which dates back to 2002. Will this trendline influence this pair? We will soon find out. Bulls ideally will post a control tower at 106-107 to prevent large price retracements.

The Week Ahead

This week will have a relatively mild news activity ahead of September’s closing in the following week.

On Monday, New Zealand kicks off the brand new week with Westpac Consumer Sentiment. This will be followed by German Bundesbank’s Monthly Report; ECB Draghi’s speech; US and Existing Home Sales.

On Tuesday, traders will keep an eye on China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI; Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI from France, Germany, and the Eurozone; UK BBA Mortgage Approvals and Public Sector Net Borrowing; Canada’s Retail Sales; and US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Japan will observe Autumnal Equinox Day today.

Wednesday will be unusually brief with New Zealand’s Trade Balance; Australia’s CB Leading Index and RBA Financial Stability Review; Germany’s Ifo Business Climate; and US New Home Sales.

Thursday will also be abbreviated and only publish a few releases such as RBA Governor Stevens’ speech; UK Nationwide HPI; Eurozone Private Loans and M3 money Supply; UK CBI Realized Sales; US Durable Goods Orders and Jobless Claims.

Friday will end the week quietly again. This time, we’ll only see Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI; GfK German Consumer Climate; US GDP and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.

China, Germany Trade Balance Beat Forecasts, Gold and Oil Drop

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 3.50 percent for the second time but it also hinted on potential rate hikes in the future. Without mentioning any timeframe, the bank said, “We expect some further policy tightening will be necessary to keep future average inflation near the target 2 per cent midpoint.” The central bank noted that the local housing market is expected to cold down, amidst robust net migration. The next Monetary Policy Statement release would be on December 11 while the next interest rate announcement would be on October 30.

Meanwhile, there was a showdown of trade balance data this week. China’s Trade Balance came out much greater than forecast at CNY49.8 billion (CNY40.8 billion forecast). Germany also beat forecast with a EUR22.2 billion trade balance in July. On the other hand, trade balance of France and the UK came out weaker than anticipated, -EUR5.5 billion and -10.2 billion, respectively.

In Canada, the statistics bureau announced that July Building Permits was surprisingly strong. The 11.8 percent advance helped press prolong the two-digit gains for the third straight month

On the other hand, August Housing Starts was slightly weaker than anticipated at 192,000.

Commodities

Gold toppled down this week. Price dropped $44 and broke through mentioned support at $1,240-$1,250 easily. Bears will get more excited and target $1,180-$1,200 next. Bulls should really prevent this from happening.

Oil reached new lows this week just like Gold, but the weakness in the former was less pronounced. Having said that, Oil is at risk of breaking a major support level at $90. If broken, this would open up a move toward $77-$86. Buyers must be careful not to catch a falling knife here.

Currency Pairs

EURUSD has finally shown some signs of life this by printing its first bullish weekly close in the past 9 weeks. Bulls need a lot of catching up to do as the pair has been down over 600 pips since July. First target is taking back control of the 1.3000 level. This level would be a major test for them.

GBPUSD opened up the week with a massive gap but the pair recovered well to close the week strongly in the black. Price needs to get back to 1.6500 to negate a lot of the bearish pressure that has built up in the last several weeks. At the same time, buyers must prevent a break of the 1.6000 level.

USDJPY was flawless this week as the pair closed in the black for five straight days and closed above the 107 level. The pair is now well above the multi-month resistance around 105.50. With the steep upclimb, we can now expect a decent retracement to at least the 106s.

The Week Ahead

Monday will be very brief and only showcase Australia’s New Motor Vehicle Sales; Switzerland’s PPI; US Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization Rate; Japan will observe Respect-for-the-Aged Day.

Tuesday will get quite busy starting with Australia’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; UK’s RPI, PPI Input, CPI, and HPI; Eurozone and German ZEW Economic Sentiment; Canada’s Manufacturing Sales; US PPI and TIC Long-Term Purchases. BOC Governor Poloz will also give a speech.

Wednesday will begin early with New Zealand’s Current Account; Australia’s MI Leading Index; Italy’s Trade Balance; UK Claimant Count Change, Jobless Rate, MPC Asset Purchase Facility and Official Bank Rate Votes; Eurozone Final CPI; and US CPI, NAHB Housing Market Index, Current Account, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate, and Economic Projections.

Thursday will be equally busy with New Zealand’s GDP; Switzerland’s Libor Rate and SNB Monetary Policy Assessment; UK Retail Sales, CBI Industrial Order Expectations, and Scottish Independence Vote; ECB’s Targeted LTRO; Canada’s Foreign Securities Purchases; US Jobless Claims, Building Permits, Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Fed Chair Yellen’s speech.

Friday ends the week very quietly with only Canada’s Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Sales in the main cards.

European Central Bank Surprised with an Interest Rate Cut, USD Remains Strong

There was a lot of information to digest this week as four major central banks released their interest rate decisions and statements.

The Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Canada all decided in keeping their respective interest rates unchanged (0.50 percent, 2.50 percent, and 1 percent, respectively).

Meanwhile, the spotlight was on the European Central Bank as they strayed from the pack and announced on Thursday a surprise cut in its benchmark interest rate to 0.05 percent from 0.15 percent. It also slashed its deposit rate by 10 basis points to -0.20 percent from -0.10 percent. The ECB “will purchase a broad portfolio of simple and transparent securities” in line with its plan to incite economic growth and hold against possible deflation. Draghi hinted on QE-style action in the coming months, and said “the governing council is unanimous in its commitment to using additional unconventional instruments.”

In other news, Manufacturing PMI in the UK, Spain, and Italy all came in weaker than expected. Spain and UK Services PMI, however, beat expectations.

Germany’s Factory Orders showed a strong rebound in July, rising 4.6 percent after posting two consecutive monthly declines.

Commodities

Gold resumed its decline this week after a successful bear defense of the $1,300 level. Price indeed rolled down further toward $1,250, reaching a weekly low of $1,257. Expect increase bearish pressure in the coming week toward potential support area at $1,240-$1,250.

Oil mirrored the prior week’s price range after the $96 level successfully held in the first three days. Price is nearing the 69-week low set on January in the low-$91s. If price breaks the $90-$91 area, price could tailspin to a swift toward $84-$86.

 Currency Pairs

USD is on a strong roll right now and EURUSD is manifesting this clearly. The pair is now in an 8-week losing streak after the 1.3000 level easily got broken this week. The weekly close at 1.2950 is very bearish; however, long-term support is just around the corner at 1.2750-1.2800.

GBPUSD dropped big time this week. Price went down nearly 370 pips, its widest trading range in close to 30 weeks. The easy break of 1.6500 imposes a serious concern in bulls’ minds. The 1.6000-1.6200 area is now at risk.

USDJPY resumed its advance this week after making a temporary pause around the 104 level. The strong bullish weekly close this week indicates there is a possibility of this pair moving to new highs. If it does not, bulls should create support in the 104-105 zone.

The Week Ahead

The second week of September will be evenly busy throughout the week.

On Monday, keep an eye on Japan’s Current Account and Final GDP; Australia’s ANZ Job Advertisement; China’s Trade Balance; Switzerland’s Retail Sales, CPI, and Jobless Rate; Germany’s Trade Balance; UK Halifax HPI; and Canada’s Building Permits.

On Tuesday, traders will look forward to the release of Japan’s BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and Tertiary Industry Activity; Australia’s NAB Business and Home Loans; UK Trade Balance, NIESR GDP Estimate, and Manufacturing Production; Canada’s Housing Starts; US JOLTS Job Openings.

On Wednesday, there will be Japan’s Core Machinery Orders; Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment; China’s New Loans; France’s Industrial Production; UK Inflation Report Hearings.

On Thursday, RBNZ will have its Rate Announcement, Press conference, and Monetary Policy Statement. Other economic releases include Japan’s BSI Manufacturing Index; Australia’s MI Inflation Expectations and Jobs data; China’s CPI and PPI; ECB Monthly Bulletin; Spain’s HPI; US Unemployment Claims.

Friday ends the week with New Zealand’s FPI and Business NZ Manufacturing Index; BOJ Kuroda’s speech; Eurogroup Meetings; US Retail Sales, Import Prices, and Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment

Busy Week Ends August Well for US; NZ Posts Poorer Trade Balance Data

Statistics New Zealand reported that exported goods’ value sold in July declined 3.3 percent compared to a year ago, and this put the Trade Balance to –NZD692 million, far weaker than the –NZD475 million expected by analysts. Moreover, the June data was revised down slightly, from NZD247 million to NZD242 million.

In the United States, Durable Goods Orders surged 22.6 percent in July as commercial aircraft demand increased on record bookings. The actual number was almost thrice what analysts have expected. The core reading dipped 0.8 percent following a 1.9 percent increase in June. The June headline reading, meanwhile, has been revised higher to 1.7 percent from 0.7 percent.

The Conference Board in the US reported that Consumer Confidence hiked to 92.4 in August, staying above the 90 level for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, Prelim GDP rose 4.2 percent while Pending Home Sales jumped 3.3 percent in July. Chicago PMI and Revise University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment were also in the green at 64.3 and 82.5, respectively.

Commodities

Gold printed an inside bar this week as bulls struggled to gain a foothold of the $1,300 level. Price traded within a $22 range and it barely closed in the green. The lack of bullish confidence to break through $1,300 is a concern, but bulls can still make up for lost time in the coming week. If they don’t, we could see price roll down further toward $1,250.

Oil also closed to the upside with an inside bar this week, but the former considerably fared much better in terms of weekly close. That does not mean Oil is out of harm’s way; Bears are targeting a break of $93 so they can ease their way toward $90-$91. Bulls need a move back through $100 to feel a bit safer.

Currency Pairs

EURUSD’s downside gap this week has been very concerning especially if we consider the fact that it happened after 6 weeks of consecutive declines. The pair is now approaching the 1.30-1.31 area which it has never seen since mid-July of 2013. We need to see a weekly bullish close above 1.3200-1.3300 in the coming week to trim the ever-growing bearish momentum.

Unlike EURUSD, GBPUSD was able to close in the green this week, the first time it ever did since the June-July transition. The preferable scenario for this pair is to see a strong close through 1.6600 and 1.6700.

USDJPY had seen an interesting situation this week as price closed the week in the red but comparatively higher than last week’s close. This could be an indication of a tug-of-war which I alluded to during the prior week, as USD and Yen supporters vie for control. Price action-wise though, bulls won and they are aiming for 105 right now.

The Week Ahead

The start of the new month will see a barrage of economic data this week.

On Monday, there will be New Zealand Overseas Trade Index; Japan’s Capital Spending; Australia’s Company Operating Profits; China’s Manufacturing PMI and HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI; Spain, Italy, and UK Manufacturing PMI; UK Net Lending to Individuals; and Switzerland’s SVME PMI. Canada and the US will be on holiday to celebrate Labor Day.

On Tuesday, traders will focus on Australia’s Building Approvals, Current Account, , Interest Rate Announcement, and RBA Rate Statement; Spain’s Unemployment Change; UK Construction PMI; and US ISM Manufacturing PMI.

China will kick off Wednesday with the Non-Manufacturing PMI, followed by Australia’s GDP data and RBA Governor Stevens’ speech; UK Halifax HPI; Italy, Spain, and UK Services PMI; Eurozone Retail Sales; BOC Rate Announcement and Statement; and US Factory Orders and Beige Book.

Thursday will remain busy with Australia’s Retail Sales and Trade Balance; BOJ’s Press Conference and Monetary Policy Statement; BOE’s and ECB’s Rate Announcement and Statement; US Unemployment Claims, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and Trade Balance; and Canada Trade Balance.

Finally on Friday, the week will end with Japan’s BOJ Monthly Report; Germany’s Industrial Production; Switzerland’s Foreign Currency Reserves; US Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate; Canada’s Ivey PMI, Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

EU, UK & Australia Interest Rates on Hold; Canada, NZ, Australia Jobs Outlook Diverge

All three major central banks who met this week have decided to maintain their respective rates. The Reserve Bank of Australia, European Central Bank, and Bank of England all maintained their rates (2.50 percent, 0.15 percent, and 0.50 percent, respectively).

On the global employment front, New Zealand led with a better-than-expected Unemployment Rate of 5.8%, while the Employment Change grew 0.4 percent (versus 0.7 percent forecast). Canada’s Employment Change grew only 0.2k (versus 25.4k forecast), with the Unemployment Rate coming in at 7 percent as expected. Meanwhile, Australia posted the worst statistics among the three as the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Employment Change declined 0.3k (when analysts expected a 13.5k advance) and Unemployment Rate soared to 6.4 percent, the highest reading since late-2002. Spain’s Unemployment Change posted -29.8k (-116.3k forecast).

Commodities

Gold made a strong recovery this week after suffering from three consecutive weekly declines. Price took out the $1,300 level quite easily and is now looking to cement support in that area. If it can do this successfully, then we can expect a move to test sellers around $1,350-$1,400.

Oil ended the week in the middle of $97 after a $2 decline which transpired. Price action showed a marked contrast from the previous week’s $5 drop. Bulls have a chance to bring price back up toward $100. Otherwise, bears can swing this back to their control and aim for a break of $95-$96 this week.

Currency Pairs

EURUSD hit its fourth straight weekly decline this week; however it has become apparent that bulls are getting more restless. If we can get a weekly close above 1.3400, we could see bulls fight back very soon.

GBPUSD continued to decline this week, marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline. The weekly close ended near the weekly low, indicating there is still a lot of bearish momentum in this pair. Sellers are still on track to reach 1.6700 if their control over this pair persists throughout the week.

USDJPY saw a tug of war between the USD and JPY as each jostled for supremacy in this week’s price movements. JPY got the upper hand, though, and this enabled the pair to close the week in its favor. However, 102 seems to be providing support so anything can happen this week. Bulls want a move through 103, while bears need a decisive break below 102.

The Week Ahead

Monday will largely be quiet with only a few economic releases, such as Japan’s Tertiary Industry Activity; Switzerland’s Retail Sales; and Canada’s Housing Starts.

Tuesday will start quite early with UK’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor. This will be followed by Australia’s NAB Business Confidence and HPI; China’s New Loans; Germany and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment; and US JOLTS Job Openings.

Wednesday will get very busy with Japan’s BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and Prelim GDP; Australia’s Wage Price Index and Westpac Consumer Sentiment; China’s Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment; UK Average Earnings Index, Jobless Rate, and Claimant Count Change, as well as BOE Inflation Report; Eurozone’s Industrial Production; US Retail Sales and Business Inventories.

Thursday will be equally as busy with New Zealand’s Business NZ Manufacturing Index and Retail Sales; Japan’s Core Machinery Orders; Australia’s MI Inflation Expectations; France’s Prelim GDP and Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls; ECB Monthly Bulletin; Eurozone CPI and Flash GDP; US Jobless Claims and Import Prices.

Friday, meanwhile, will have moderate news activity with UK’s Second Estimate GDP; Canada’s Manufacturing Sales; US PPI, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization Rate, and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Fed Puts Rate on Hold Again; US Unemployment Rate Retrogresses

The US Federal Reserve has decided on Wednesday to keep rates on hold as expected. Spotlight was then focused on US jobs numbers which came out weaker than expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Non-Farm Employment Change grew less than expected in July, 209,000 versus 231,000 forecast. The actual number was lower than the 218,000 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change published on Wednesday. The surprise came from the Unemployment Rate number, which worsened to 6.2 percent, following three consecutive months of better-than-actual readings.

In other US news, Pending Home Sales dipped 1.1 percent in June, following a 6 percent advance in the prior month. The July CB Consumer Confidence index improved further to 90.9 in July, the highest reading since January of 2008. Chicago PMI fell 10 points to 52.6 in July.

In other news, Australia’s Building Approvals for June dropped 5 percent, following the 10.3 percent increase in May. Meanwhile, PPI surprised with a 0.1 percent dip in June.

Commodities

Gold formed its third consecutive bearish weekly candle after sellers managed to push the price down through the $1,300 level. If this level holds in the coming weeks, expect a move toward $1,250 or even lower.

After last week’s inside bar, Oil dropped like a waterfall as sellers piled in through stops below $100. Price declined just a little over $5 to reach the lower $97s, prices unseen since early-February of this year. A thick zone of resistance may have now formed above $100, so bears may have an easier time pounding oil in the next few days or weeks. If bearish momentum will persist, downside target will be $90-$91.

Currency Pairs

EURUSD hit its third bearish weekly close this week (nearly hitting the mentioned area at 1.3300-50), although Friday’s price action eradicated most of the week’s decline. The move is not surprising considering this pair has been relentlessly on-sided since the start of July. Bulls have an opportunity to recover, but the acid test just right at 1.3500. This level is followed by thick resistance in 1.3600-1.3700.

Bearish sentiment has been more pronounced in GBPUSD than EURUSD, as we have witnessed nearly 100 pips of decline in Sterling this week. Sellers are looking to target 1.6700, but bulls may have a chance to thwart that if the Dollar will decline in the coming week.

USDJPY finally posted two bearish days to contrast from the 9 consecutive bullish days behind it. Sellers came in at the 103 level however the decline has been relatively weak, as price managed to close the week not far behind at 102.60. This could indicate more bullish moves will come in the next few days.

The Week Ahead

Monday will have a spattering of news throughout the day, starting with Australia’s Retail Sales and ANZ Job Ads; Spain’s Unemployment Change; Switzerland’s SVME PMI; and UK’s Construction PMI. Australian banks will be closed to observe Bank Holiday, while Canadian banks observe Civic Day.

Tuesday will have improved news activity with Australia’s Trade Balance and RBA’s Rate Announcement and Statement; UK Halifax HPI and Services PMI; Spain and Italy Services PMI; Eurozone Retail Sales; US Factory Orders and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Wednesday will have a moderate news activity but will start early with New Zealand’s jobs data; Germany’s Factory Orders; Switzerland’s CPI; UK Manufacturing Production and Industrial Production; Italy’s Prelim GDP; US and Canada Trade Balance;

After Thursday’s jobs data from Australia, the market will focus on Europe with the release of ECB and BOE rate announcements and statements. These will be followed by Canada’s Building Permits and Ivey PMI; and US Jobless Claims.

Friday will still be lively in the news front with Japan’s Current Account and BOJ Monetary Policy Statement and BOJ presscon; Australia’s Home Loans and RBA Monetary Policy Statement; China’s Trade Balance; Germany and UK Trade Balance; France’s Industrial Production; Canada jobs data; and US Prelim Nonfarm Productivity and Prelim Unit Labor Costs.

EURUSD 9 Consecutive Daily Decline, the GBPUSD down for a Second Consecutive Week

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has decided on Thursday to raise its Official Cash Rate by 25 percentage points to 3.50 percent to contain inflation which currently remains moderate. Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler stated that amidst the backdrop of weak commodity prices, the New Zealand Dollar’s current level is “unjustified and unsustainable and there is potential for a significant fall”. He said the OCR’s future hiking path is dependent on “the assessment of the impact of the tightening in monetary policy to date, and the implications of future economic and financial data for inflationary pressures.” Meanwhile, the June Trade Balance has beaten expectations, posting NZ$247 million, its second straight monthly surplus.

In the United States, another mixed bag of data was published this week. June Existing Home Sales came in slightly better than forecast at 5.04 million, but New Home Sales registered a much weaker reading (406k vs 485k expected). June Durable Goods Orders and its core reading were both up (0.7 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively). Finally, Jobless Claims trumped expectations for a third straight week (284k vs 310k forecast).

In other news, UK Public Sector Net Borrowing and CBI Realized Sales posted better readings. However, CBI Industrial Order Expectations registered a reading of 2, the third weakest reading in the last 6 months.

Commodities

Gold sat nearly unchanged this week, with just a slight bearish bias although price closed above the $1,300 level. Gold have been pounded by sellers all week, but bulls managed to eke out a substantial gain on Friday after price declined to as low as $1,287 on Thursday. They need to exert more next week to prevent a repeat of this week’s price action. Target remains a break of $1,250.

Oil posted an inside bar this week, as buyers and sellers attempted to gain control. Price ended pretty much unchanged and closed the week just below the $102 area. This puts oil at risk of another round of selling toward $100 in the coming week, unless buyers will act early and push price toward $104 in the first few trading sessions.

Currency Pairs

A EURUSD weekly close above 1.3550-1.3600 never happened, and the pair progressed to clinch what looks like a 9-consecutive daily decline amid the significant bearish tone in this pair. This pair is on track to visit 1.3300-50 in the coming week or so unless bulls will do something to thwart it.

GBPUSD followed EURUSD down for a second consecutive week as the former’s 1.7000 level failed to hold the selling attacks. If bearish momentum intensifies, this pair could easily reach 1.6600-1.6700 in the coming week. On the bright side, there is an opportunity to reclaim the 1.7000 level on that same week.

USDJPY averted another selldown this week thanks to five straight bullish daily closes. Bulls will have to complete the control of 102 next week so they can tackle 103 and 104 and get out of the current consolidation. On the downside, they must keep a strong support at 101.

The Week Ahead

Monday’s news activity will be very brief with only US Flash Services PMI and Pending Home Sales on the cards.

Tuesday will have much more activity with Japan’s Household Spending, Jobless Rate, and Retail Sales; Australia’s HIA New Home Sales; UK’s Net Lending to Individuals, Mortgage Approvals, and M4 Money Supply; US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI and CB Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday will be very busy starting with New Zealand’s Building Consents; Japan’s Preliminary Industrial Production; Germany’s Prelim CPI; Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer; Spain’s Flash CPI and Flash GDP; Canada’s RMPI; US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Advance GDP, FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate.

Thursday will offer Australia’s Building Approvals and Import Prices; Japan’s Average Cash Earnings; Germany’s Retail Sales and Unemployment Change; UK Nationwide HPI; France’s Consumer Spending; Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate and Jobless Rate; Canada’s GDP; US Unemployment Claims Employment Cost Index, and Chicago PMI.

Friday will end the week with considerable activity, particularly China’s Manufacturing PMI and HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI; Australia’s PPI; BOJ Kuroda’s speech; Spain, UK, and Italy Manufacturing PMI; Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI; US Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Employment Change, Core PCE Price Index, Personal Spending, ISM Manufacturing PMI, and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Canada Puts Rate on Hold; US Registers Mixed Data

The Bank of Canada has decided to keep its overnight rate unchanged at 1 percent. Accordingly, the deposit rate is set at 0.75 percent while the bank rate is at 1.25 percent. The Bank has noted that CPI and core CPI have moved up in recent months, and they attributed it to temporary effects rather than domestic factors. Inflation is projected to stay near 2 percent in the following two years.

Meanwhile, the US published a mixed bag of data this week. Both July readings of the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index surged (25.6 and 23.9, respectively), but Housing Starts and Building Permits came in lower than expected (0.89 million and 0.96 million, respectively). Jobless Claims for the prior week came in lower than expected for a second week in a row at just 302,000. On the other hand, TIC Long-Term Purchases increased in May to a lower-than-expected $19.4 billion, following a revised lower reading for April (-$41.2 billion).

In other news, UK Claimant Count Change came in much better than expected in June (-36,300 versus -27.100 expected). Meanwhile, the May Jobless rate, as expected, registered a slight dip to 6.5 percent from 6.6 percent.

Commodities

We finally saw good resistance in Gold as price posted its first weekly loss in seven weeks. Although price declined, bulls were able to hold on to the $1,300 level, and this could indicate that they are still in control. They need another push toward $1,400 to avoid a move back close to $1,250.

Oil moved opposite of Gold, as the former made a substantial reversal this week off of the critical $99-$100 area. From peeking transiently below $99, price zoomed up close to $104, before closing the week below $103. This move has essentially negated the risk for further declines, but bulls should stay focused so as not to waste the current opportunity to bring price back above $105.

Currency Pairs

The risk of EURUSD visiting 1.3500 has been materialized this week as bulls failed to take out resistance around 1.3650. Current price action opens up to a move toward 1.3300-50 in the next two weeks. What can turn this around is a strong weekly close above 1.3550-1.3600 at the very least.

GBPUSD buyers attempted to create a bullish weekly close, but selling overwhelmed their efforts as the week drew to a close. The 1.7100 continues to attract a tug-of-war for the control of the remaining part of July. Bulls should gun for another run toward 1.7200, unless they want an increased pressure on 1.7000.

USDJPY traded this week with just a 70-pip trading range; however sellers have stayed dominant throughout the process. We could be seeing a setup for a large move down, unless buyers have a different idea in mind. Bulls should not waste time; they must gain a foothold above 103 as soon as possible.

The Week Ahead

Monday will mostly be quiet except for the release of Germany’s Bundesbank Monthly Report. Japanese banks will observe Marine Day.

Activity will pick up slightly on Tuesday starting with RBA Governor Stevens’ speech. This will be followed by Switzerland’s Trade Balance; UK Public Sector Net Borrowing and CBI Industrial Order Expectations; US CPI and Existing Home Sales.

Wednesday’s news activity will be a notch higher with Australia’s CPI; UK MPC Asset Purchase and Official Bank Rate votes, BBA Mortgage Approvals, and CBI Realized Sales; Canada’s Retail Sales; and Eurozone Consumer Confidence.

Thursday will register the most news activity starting very early with New Zealand’s RBNZ Rate Announcement and Statement, and Trade Balance; Japan’s Trade Balance; China’s HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI; France, Germany, and Eurozone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI; UK Retail Sales; US Flash Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales.

Friday ends the week with Japan’s Tokyo Core CPI; New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence; Germany’s GfK Consumer Climate and Ifo Business Climate; Eurozone Private Loans and M3 Money Supply; UK Prelim GDP; and US Durable Goods Orders.

Australia, Canada Jobless Rates Worsen; Canada Got Mixed Bag of Data

The focal point this week was on the employment outlook in several parts of the world. In Australia, the Bureau of Statistics reported employers hired 15,900 more people in June, compared a 5,100 decline in May. The Jobless Rate ticked higher from 5.9 percent to 6 percent.

Meanwhile, Canada saw a dimmer jobs outlook as Statistics Canada reported a surprise 9,400 decline in Employment Change. Analysts were expecting another month of increased hiring (median forecast 20,700). The Unemployment Rate also ticked higher in June to 7.1 percent.

In other news, Canada’s Building Permits got a surprise surge in May, attributed to shopping malls and multi-dwellings in Vancouver and Toronto. Permits surged 13.8 percent, the strongest seen since late-2013. The June Housing Starts came in slightly better than expected, while Ivey PMI sank further below 50 to 46.9, the worst reading since December.

Commodities

Gold bulls were able to maintain control of price this week, etching the sixth straight weekly bullish close well above the $1,300 level. We could be seeing a hardened support just above $1,300 for a potential move back toward $1,400. This is important in order to prevent another breakdown toward $1,250.

Meanwhile, Oil has made big moves in the past few weeks, sliding about $7 in three successive bearish weeks. Bulls will now have to contend with further selling pressure as price breaks apart the $100 barrier. Since the move toward $100 has come much earlier than expected, we can now expect the risk of a move back down to the $90-$95 area.

Currency Pairs

EURUSD trading activity has eased this week despite the marginal bullish weekly close above 1.3600. This move is more favorable to bears than bulls, hence bulls should keep pushing price up. A break of 1.3700 is important to reduce the bearish tone. The more price stays unchanged, the higher the risk of this pair visiting 1.3500.

GBPUSD traded in the upper part of the prior week’s 170-pip range, giving back some gains after comfortable five-week winning streak. Although the retreat was minimal, bears could still unleash a barrage of selling pressure in the coming weeks, so buyers must prepared to defend the 1.7100 level.

The significant gathering of USDJPY sellers this week enabled this pair to fulfill another bearish week – this time price closed at its lowest since mid-November of 2013. Could this be the beginning of the end? Last possible bulwark could sit around the 100-101 area. Beyond that, we could see a quick trip toward 95-98. All this selling pressure won’t dissipate unless bulls take out the 103 level.

The Week Ahead

Monday is mostly quiet except for the release of Japan’s Revised Industrial Production; China’s New Loans; and Eurozone’s Industrial Production and ECB Draghi’s speech.

Activity will pick up significantly on Tuesday with UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor; Australia’s New Motor Vehicle Sales and RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; BOJ’s Monetary Policy Statement and presscon; Switzerland’s CPI; UK PPI Input, PPI and RPI; Germany and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment; US Retail Sales, Empire State Manufacturing Index,, Business Inventories, Import Prices, and Fed Yellen’s testimony before the US Senate Banking Committee.

A very busy Wednesday will start early with New Zealand’s CPI; China’s Fixed Asset Investment, GDP, Industrial Production, and NBS presscon; UK Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index, and Unemployment Rate; Canada’s Manufacturing Sales, BOC Rate Announcement and Statement, presscon, and Monetary Policy Report; US PPI, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production, TIC Long-Term Purchases, and Beige Book.

Thursday will start with Australia’s CB Leading Index and NAB Quarterly Business Confidence; Eurozone CPI; Canada Foreign Securities Purchases; US Unemployment Claims, Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Friday ends the week with BOJ’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; Canada CPI and Wholesale Sales; and US preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment.

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